Original Source: BCC Global
Date: December 6, 2024
Introduction
In the first nine months of 2024, COSTA Coffee faced the closure of 92 stores, leaving its total number of outlets hovering around 400. This figure represents less than 5% of Starbucks’ total stores and just 2% of Luckin Coffee’s. Once considered a prime competitor to Starbucks, COSTA was a favored place for after-school or post-work relaxation. However, COSTA Coffee now appears to be retreating from the fiercely competitive coffee market. Why has this happened?
Reason 1: Strategy Lagging Behind China’s Changing Coffee Consumption Trends
COSTA Coffee, rooted in a “slow enjoyment” coffee culture, has long prioritized creating a tranquil environment for customers to sit down and savor high-quality coffee. Its semi-automatic espresso machines, paired with hand-poured latte art, became a signature of its brand, showcasing COSTA’s commitment to quality.
However, over the past two decades, China’s rapid urbanization and accelerating lifestyle pace have significantly altered consumption habits. The surge in demand for coffee-to-go and delivery services has reshaped the coffee market. Leading coffee chains have responded by widely adopting fully-automatic coffee machines, which shorten preparation time, improve service efficiency, and ensure standardized, high-quality output. This shift caters to the fast-paced needs of modern consumers.
While COSTA Coffee has attempted to adapt by exploring ways to balance tradition with the demands of a modern, fast-paced lifestyle, its progress has been slow compared to competitors.
In China, coffee culture is increasingly blending with local preferences, particularly a trend toward “milk tea-ization” of coffee products. This stands in stark contrast to the traditional English coffee experience that COSTA represents. For example, Luckin Coffee launches nearly 1,000 new coffee flavors annually, with around 100 products entering the market each year to offer consumers novel experiences. In comparison, COSTA Coffee only introduces about 20 new products annually.
As Chinese consumers demand greater personalization and innovation, the ability of coffee brands to preserve their unique identity while adapting to rapidly changing trends will determine their competitiveness in the market.
Reason 2: Brand Positioning Drives Costs and Pricing
The coffee industry has undergone a significant transformation in recent years, with store sizes shrinking to accommodate changing consumption habits. As the number of coffee brands and stores increases, and coffee delivery gains popularity, large store formats face growing challenges.
COSTA Coffee’s spacious stores, while providing a unique experience, come with higher fixed costs, including rent, décor, and staffing. With intensified market competition and fragmented consumer traffic, profitability has become increasingly difficult to maintain. In contrast, smaller, more agile coffee shops that respond quickly to market demands are gaining favor.
Starbucks, for example, has adopted a diversified strategy to address these challenges. The company introduced Reserve stores, which offer premium coffee and additional services such as pour-over coffee and tea experiences to attract experience-driven consumers. Furthermore, Starbucks expanded innovative services such as Starbucks Delivers, Starbucks Now, and curbside pickup, enhancing customer convenience and competitiveness.
Although COSTA has made attempts to adapt—such as launching online ordering and delivery services—its transformation remains slow, and the legacy of its large-store model continues to constrain its profitability and flexibility.
In terms of pricing, COSTA Coffee has remained notably “rigid” amidst China’s intense coffee price wars. Brands like Luckin Coffee have driven prices as low as 9.9 RMB (1.40 USD) to attract consumers, successfully pushing the average coffee price in China to a range of 10-15 RMB (1.40-2.10 USD). This pricing aligns with the public’s expectations for everyday consumption while ensuring quality.
In contrast, COSTA Coffee’s average spending per customer remains around 35 RMB (4.80 USD), significantly higher than its competitors. As price sensitivity grows among consumers, many prefer products offering greater cost-effectiveness.
Reason 3: Shifting Business Focus to Bottled Coffee
Following its acquisition by Coca-Cola, COSTA Coffee has shifted focus to the bottled coffee market, an emerging segment that has become a new growth driver for the brand. Last year, COSTA ranked third in China’s bottled coffee market, trailing only Nestlé and Starbucks.
Leveraging Coca-Cola’s robust bottling system, COSTA has efficiently expanded its bottled coffee distribution, reaching a wider consumer base. To support this growth, COSTA has assembled a team comprising talent from both Coca-Cola and COSTA, covering key areas such as R&D and business strategy.
Looking ahead, COSTA Coffee plans to strengthen its presence in emerging business models, including e-commerce, new retail, and O2O (online-to-offline). By focusing on at-home consumption scenarios and mitigating risks from disruptions to outdoor channels, COSTA aims to provide more diversified coffee consumption experiences.
Conclusion
COSTA Coffee faces significant challenges in China’s dynamic and competitive coffee market. While its traditional emphasis on slow coffee enjoyment once resonated with consumers, shifting preferences toward convenience, affordability, and local flavor innovation have exposed weaknesses in COSTA’s strategy.
To remain competitive, COSTA Coffee must accelerate its adaptation to the fast-paced consumption trends in China. This includes exploring smaller, more agile store formats, enhancing price competitiveness, and leveraging the growing bottled coffee segment to expand its consumer base. By balancing its brand heritage with market-driven innovation, COSTA has the opportunity to reclaim relevance and compete effectively in the evolving Chinese coffee landscape.
[Disclaimer]: The above content reflects analysis of publicly available information, expert insights, and BCC research. It does not constitute investment advice. BCC is not responsible for any losses resulting from reliance on the views expressed herein. Investors should exercise caution