If we rewind to the beginning of 2025, few would have predicted that within just a few months, Alibaba could compete head-to-head with Meituan in food delivery order volume, thanks to Taobao Flash Sales. During the recent “First Cup of Milk Tea in Autumn” battle last weekend, Taobao Flash Sales even surpassed Meituan at its peak order volume. This battle not only ignited the market atmosphere in late summer and early autumn, but also revealed a new shift in the landscape of the instant retail track.
From “Hourly Delivery” to Taobao Flash Sales: A Game-Changing Move
The predecessor of Taobao Flash Sales was “Hourly Delivery.” Over the past few years, this business had remained lukewarm, with many people still stuck in the perception that “Taobao is e-commerce, Meituan is food delivery — they don’t interfere with each other.”
That changed on April 30, 2024, when “Hourly Delivery” was rebranded to “Taobao Flash Sales,” and within just one week, it expanded from 50 cities to nationwide coverage. The logic behind this was straightforward: Taobao had traffic, and Ele.me had delivery capacity — combining the two created a chemical reaction. Alibaba’s management determined that market education had already been done by Meituan and JD.com, allowing them to skip massive education costs and directly spend on subsidies to grab users.
This time, Alibaba was not a passive observer — it invested heavily. In July, Taobao Flash Sales announced a plan to invest RMB 50 billion (approx. USD 6.88 billion) in subsidies over the next 12 months, covering consumers, merchants, and delivery riders. This was not simply about “exchanging price for volume,” but about direct platform subsidies — pouring in real money.
The results were immediate: brands like Miniso, Purcotton, and VERO MODA saw a surge in orders, and Watsons even achieved more orders within one hour of going online during a campaign than it typically sees in an entire day. In short: this wasn’t just business — it was a reshuffling of the cards.
The moment the industry truly felt the heat of battle was on the first day of autumn in 2025, with the campaign for the “First Cup of Milk Tea in Autumn.”
Every year on the first day of autumn, new-style tea brands engage in trend-driven marketing, but this year, thanks to the food delivery war and subsidies, the scene was even more intense. On the streets, delivery riders were seen carrying bags full of milk tea, running between malls and residential areas. On social media, users shared their milk tea orders obtained with “bargain-hunting” tactics — the hot topic even trended on major platforms.
According to LatePost, on August 7, the order volume on Taobao Flash Sales broke a new record by 8:00 PM. On August 8 and 9, Taobao Flash Sales’ daily order share exceeded Meituan’s for the first time.
Though the two companies use different statistical methods (Meituan counts fulfilled orders, Taobao counts paid orders — the latter includes scheduled orders), at least during peak periods, Taobao Flash Sales has truly made Meituan feel the pressure of being “hurt by a hit.”
Offense vs. Defense: Taobao Strikes, Meituan Defends
Taobao Flash Sales, fueled by hundreds of billions in continuous subsidies, is not only willing to burn money but also willing to fight tough battles. The entire Alibaba ecosystem is mobilized: Ele.me, Hema, Fliggy, and other business lines have all joined in, creating a powerful synergy between supply and traffic. Key categories are being targeted first — starting with high-frequency, lightweight, and standardized products like tea beverages to drive incremental orders, then gradually infiltrating meals and retail. These are forceful offensive strategies.
Facing Taobao’s fierce assault, Meituan held an unusual all-hands meeting in late June, calling for comprehensive defense. By the end of July, Meituan shifted its strategy — no longer focusing solely on order volume, but on retaining high-value members (Black Gold / Black Diamond users), in an effort to protect its core base. Senior executives at Meituan even publicly called for a “ceasefire” with Alibaba, stating that this kind of “brutal competition” was meaningless and would end in mutual destruction.
Between offense and defense, it’s clear: for the first time, Meituan’s previously dominant position is under real threat.
Winners and Losers of the Food Delivery War
The winners and losers of this food delivery war have already begun to emerge. Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com have each reaped gains in the subsidy battle — even if it means burning cash in the short term, they are trading it for future market mindshare. According to financial results from top coffee chain Luckin Coffee, Q2 revenue reached RMB 12.36 billion (approx. USD 1.70 billion), with profits of RMB 1.7 billion (approx. USD 233.9 million) — a historic high, largely thanks to growth in food delivery channels. Other brands like Cotti and Starbucks have also seen significant growth in delivery orders.
The losers, however, are small and medium-sized merchants. Owners of small restaurants and cafés have openly stated that “the food delivery war has sharply reduced business.” Many subsidies are shared by platforms and merchants. Small businesses already operate on thin margins, and with platforms tightening pricing control, their survival becomes even harder. On the surface, the food delivery war looks like a battle of capital among giants — but in reality, much of the cost burden has been passed down to small merchants.
Value War Is the Endgame
Back to the tech giants — right now, it may be Meituan who most wants a truce. With its financial results release imminent, the capital market will soon see how much pressure Meituan faces from dual-sided attacks. In the long run, the food delivery war will inevitably shift from a price war to a value war: consumers will ultimately choose the platform that offers a better experience and richer supply; delivery riders will choose platforms with stable order volumes and decent income; merchants will choose platforms where costs are controllable and pricing is autonomous.
Instant retail is the inevitable direction for future e-commerce development. This “First Cup of Milk Tea in Autumn” battle is just one node in the giants’ direct confrontation. Meituan’s moat still exists, but Taobao Flash Sales’ aggressive assault has already broken the past dominance of a single player in the food delivery market.
In the short term, the food delivery war may appear to be a game of “subsidies for order volume,” but on a deeper level, it’s a strategic positioning war among Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com on the instant retail track. In this capital showdown, consumers benefit temporarily, small merchants are pressured, and platforms burn money to capture mindshare.
How far this can go in the future will no longer depend on who can spend more, but who can leave behind real user habits and a stable ecosystem after the subsidy tide recedes.
The “First Cup of Milk Tea in Autumn” has already been drunk — the real battle has only just begun.
[Disclaimer]: The above content reflects analysis of publicly available information, expert insights, and BCC research. It does not constitute investment advice. BCC is not responsible for any losses resulting from reliance on the views expressed herein. Investors should exercise caution.