In recent days, domestic humanoid robot companies have continuously released new products and announced new orders, and the heightened industry sentiment driven by short-term event catalysts is encouraging. With ongoing delivery and application in the industrial field, China’s humanoid robot industry is accelerating toward commercialization. Coupled with potential listing plans by leading companies, whether the industry can truly grasp “certainty” has become a key point of long-term attention.
Interpretation of developments among leading humanoid-robot players
At present, there are quite a few Chinese humanoid-robot body startups that meet the (quasi) unicorn valuation standard, such as Leju Robotics, Galbot (Galaxy General), Fourier Intelligence, and Stary Sea (Xinghaitu). But the ones that truly deserve to be called “top-tier traffic drivers” are likely still Unitree and Zhiyuan Robotics. The former became a sensation at home and abroad thanks to its Spring Festival Gala performance, while the latter stirred up market waves in 2025 with a round of capital backing. Both founders, Wang Xingxing and Peng Zhihui (Zhihuijun), received the honor of “Outstanding Builders of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics from the Non-Public Sector of the National Economy (Sixth Session),” underscoring the state’s emphasis on the robotics industry.
Of course, the spotlight should also not overlook UBTECH (HK:09880), which bears the halo of being the “first humanoid-robot stock.” Its successive announcements of new orders signal an accelerating pace of commercialization and are set to consolidate the “Big Three” status in China’s humanoid-robot field.
Since September, UBTECH has successively announced: a CNY 250 million (USD 35.7 million) procurement contract with a well-known domestic company; a CNY 32 million (USD 4.6 million) procurement contract with a certain A-share listed auto-technology company; and winning the bid for the “Guangxi Embodied Intelligence Data Collection and Testing Center” worth CNY 126 million (USD 18.0 million). The Walker series’ total contract value for the full year has exceeded CNY 630 million (including nearly CNY 50 million already delivered in the first half, USD 90.0 million and USD 7.1 million respectively; not including the full-size research-education humanoid robot Skywalker jointly developed with the Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center). The 2025 target delivery volume exceeds 500 units, marking a surge compared to the 2024 situation (~CNY 35 million in humanoid-robot revenue and 10 units delivered; USD ~5.0 million), corresponding to a year-to-date share-price increase of over 130%!
Even more valuable is that UBTECH has already explored a set of replicable solutions in real-world applications. According to BCC Global Research, in the cooperation case between UBTECH and a certain automobile company, the UBTECH Walker S1 undertook tasks such as picking auto parts and handling multiple types of material transfers, fully serving the logistics links of the final assembly line. The success rate of its picking task has risen to 80–90%, and the single-day workload is about 40–50% of human labor, i.e., about 400 picking tasks completed per robot per day. The handling task is still in the testing stage; each operation currently takes 1.5–2 minutes, with 30–40 operations completed per day, mainly constrained by high load requirements and stability issues.
At the same time, UBTECH has deployed multiple on-site engineers responsible for O&M and emergency development, while also retaining a manual review step within the picking pipeline. They not only correct missed or incorrect picks but also label relevant data to ensure overall process accuracy and continuous data optimization. The resulting picking model has begun trial migration to other production lines and enterprises, including cooperation with companies such as Geely and Foxconn, greatly shortening the early-stage development cycle.
Zhiyuan Robotics has seen major advances toward mass production. Partner and Senior Vice President Wang Chuang stated in a media briefing, “(Zhiyuan) is already the company with the largest shipments among global humanoid robots, even larger than Musk (in shipments).” On October 9, the company officially announced a framework order with Longcheer Technology (SH:603341), a leading global consumer-electronics ODM, worth several hundred million yuan and nearly a thousand units, with initial focus on applications in tablet production lines to achieve batch deployment of embodied-intelligence robots in consumer-electronics assembly and manufacturing scenarios. On October 16, together with Joyson Preh (Junpu Intelligent, SH:688306), the company held the offline global debut and commissioning ceremony of the Zhiyuan Sprite G2 in Ningbo, under which a production line with an annual capacity of more than 3,000 units will be built, and initial commercial deliveries will simultaneously begin toward a procurement contract exceeding CNY 100 million (over USD 14.3 million) for Joyson Electronics (SH:600699), creating a demonstrative sample of “embodied intelligence + industrial production” in auto-parts manufacturing.
Experts interviewed by BCC also pointed out that Zhiyuan Robotics’ goal for the second half of 2025 is to raise the success rate of robot operations in practical application scenarios such as logistics sorting to 98–99%, to achieve 24-hour continuous operation to match human efficiency, and—through in-house motor R&D and cost-reduction measures via scale production—to bring single-unit cost to the CNY 100,000–200,000 level (USD 14,300–28,600), thereby truly empowering broader potential applications in manufacturing scenarios.
Unitree, for its part, continues to hold its position akin to “selling shovels in a gold rush” with hardware. There is a continued push downmarket from H1 to G1 and then to the R1, whose starting price is only CNY 39,900 (USD ~5,700). There is also the release of the new-generation full-size H2, which excels in performance, motion capabilities, and openness for education and research scenarios.
Deep dive into overseas leading humanoid-robot players
However, in terms of the secondary market, domestic leading manufacturers at most have a single investable target or only limited influence. The true catalyst for the entire sector still depends on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). Ahead of the third-quarter earnings call in October and the shareholders’ meeting in November, Tesla will need to complete a series of tasks such as domestic and overseas factory audits and the finalization of Optimus Gen3. In addition, there is news that Nidec Corporation has become the designated supplier of harmonic reducers for the rotating joints of Tesla’s humanoid robots, with an order volume of 410,000 units for 2026; likewise, Xinjian Transmission has obtained an order for over 1,000 sets of Tesla dexterous-hand assemblies (including ball screws, motors, sensors, etc.), and Hengli Hydraulics (SH:601100) has received positive evaluations for its products and mass-production capability. All signs indicate that the mass-production roadmap for Tesla’s humanoid robots is getting back on track.
This also aligns with Tesla’s four-phase training-system plan for the Optimus robot. BCC Global Research shows:
- Phase 1 (2024.07 – 2025.04): Human-demonstration teleoperation, with the goal of acquiring initial, high-quality expert data that carries explicit task intent;
- Phase 2 (2025.05 – 2025.11): Sim-to-Real plus reinforcement-learning phalanx training, with the goal of testing massive interaction possibilities at lower cost and higher efficiency to train models’ generalization and robustness;
- Phase 3 (2025.11 – 2026): Structured-scenario deployment and shadow mode, mainly targeting real factory application scenarios such as material handling, planned inbound inventory receiving, and placement of semi-finished assembly trays;
- Phase 4 (after the full launch of the data flywheel): Data-driven capability spirals upward, with plans by 2027 to develop 80% of to-B application scenarios and 50% of to-C life scenarios (such as household garbage handling, water delivery services, and simple household chores).
Overall, riding the wave in humanoid robots—whether by entering the capital market early to seize first-mover advantages, or by focusing on niche tracks to consolidate software and hardware capabilities—the ability to achieve commercialization is the core competence for addressing fierce market competition. As a sector bearing the mission of national scientific and technological development, robotics can only, through competition, continuously realize technological breakthroughs and close the commercial loop, so as to support and promote the broader industry as soon as possible.
[Disclaimer]: The above content reflects analysis of publicly available information, expert insights, and BCC research. It does not constitute investment advice. BCC is not responsible for any losses resulting from reliance on the views expressed herein. Investors should exercise caution.