In March 2026, the global silver market’s “Normandy moment” may arrive—a run on physical silver is quietly drawing near. COMEX data points to a brewing storm: in January 2026, a month that is traditionally not a major delivery month, more than 40 million ounces of silver applied for physical delivery, whereas in the same period in prior years the figure was usually only 1 million to 2 million ounces. Even more severe, as March—the main delivery month—approaches, estimated delivery demand is expected to reach a staggering 70 million to 80 million ounces, potentially exhausting all of COMEX’s currently registered inventory. Silver prices have surged from under USD 30 at the beginning of 2025 to roughly USD 117 today, with an annual gain exceeding 154%. But behind this frenzied rise is a century-defining struggle over silver’s pricing power and control of physical supply.
Delivery Crisis
The physical nerves of the global silver market are taut. A seasoned precious-metals analyst has issued a clear warning: the New York Mercantile Exchange may face a physical silver delivery default as early as March 2026.
Historically rare signs are emerging one after another. In mid-January 2026, in just seven days, 33.45 million ounces of silver were withdrawn from COMEX for delivery—equivalent to 26% of its registered inventory disappearing within a single week.
This abnormal delivery demand is forming an undercurrent. Market participants no longer trust the promises of “paper silver.” They would rather pay a premium to obtain physical silver in advance—an extremely rare phenomenon in historical experience.
Market structure has also fundamentally changed. The silver futures curve has inverted: near-month contract prices are instead higher than far-month prices, forming a “backwardation.” This clearly indicates that the market’s thirst for physical silver right now far exceeds promises of future delivery.
Global Game
The silver trading market is staging a tense game on a global scale. On one side is unprecedented pressure from a run on physical supply; on the other side are emergency countermeasures by major exchanges worldwide.
There was once an “extreme” price spread between the Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX, at one point approaching 10%. This arbitrage opportunity incentivized traders to move silver out of regions where inventories were relatively ample, further intensifying an already tight physical stock situation.
Facing this situation, major exchanges globally have simultaneously strengthened risk controls. Starting in late December 2025, CME adjusted margins for precious-metals contracts four times in less than one month.
From January 13, 2026, CME changed silver margin requirements from a fixed USD amount to 9% of notional value, with gold at 5%. This new model means that rising prices will automatically trigger higher margin requirements, increasing leverage pressure in the market.
At the same time, the Shanghai Futures Exchange also took frequent action. Since December 2025, it has tightened trading limits on silver futures four times in succession. By January 27, 2026, the intraday opening limit for silver positions had been sharply tightened to 800 lots.
China’s Strategy
On January 1, 2026, a policy change sent shockwaves through the global silver market: the Chinese government officially reclassified silver from an ordinary commodity to a strategic material, placing it alongside rare earths, and implemented a strict export licensing regime.
The impact of this policy adjustment is far-reaching. China is the world’s largest processing hub for refined silver, with annual exports accounting for 60%–70% of total global exports. The new policy effectively cuts off one major physical source for the global market.
The logic behind China’s designation of silver as a strategic material is clear and forceful. One major reason is the photovoltaic industry, where China is a global leader. In each conventional photovoltaic module, the usage of silver paste is roughly 15–20 grams, equivalent to about 0.5–0.7 ounces of silver.
At the same time, China has the world’s largest electric-vehicle market, and EV demand for silver is 67%–79% higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles. Dependence on silver in areas such as AI data centers, 5G infrastructure, and semiconductor packaging further makes this metal’s strategic status increasingly prominent.
Power Shift
The silver market is undergoing a profound shift in pricing power. For the past 70 years, global silver pricing power has been entirely in the hands of futures traders at COMEX and the LBMA. Paper-silver trading volume once reached as high as 356:1 versus total physical silver reserves.
But now, this system is facing a crisis of trust. The market is starting to question whether these “paper promises” can truly be exchanged for physical silver.
This distrust is clearly reflected in market indicators. Silver lease rates have surged to around 8%, far above the 0.3%–0.5% typical in normal years. Such extreme data reflects that the market’s silver shortage has reached an abnormal level.
In practice, the global silver market has already split into three regional islands: Asia (mainly China and India), North America (mainly COMEX), and Europe (mainly the LBMA). Each region is competing for the silver it can control.
This regional fragmentation means the traditional globally integrated pricing system is breaking down. Silver’s pricing logic is shifting from “paper pricing” centered in Western financial hubs toward more region-based pricing that depends more heavily on physical supply and demand.
Future Fog
March 2026 is becoming a critical node for the global silver market. If COMEX cannot fulfill delivery obligations, it will trigger a series of chain reactions.
Some experts warn that a delivery default would completely negate the authority of COMEX’s pricing power, and that a failure in silver delivery would immediately transmit to the gold market. Because gold is, in essence, an “anti-USD” or “anti-U.S. Treasuries” asset, a default in the gold market would directly shock the credit market.
Market forecasts are polarizing. On the one hand, analysts expect silver prices could surge toward USD 300 per ounce. On the other hand, historical lessons also warn of risk: in 2011, CME raised silver margin requirements five times in a row, which once led to silver prices plunging by nearly 30% within a few weeks.
Structural changes in the market may be even more profound than price volatility. China’s export-control decision has fundamentally altered the global flow pattern of silver, while the central banks of countries such as Russia and India have begun incorporating silver into reserve assets, further strengthening silver’s monetary attributes.
Under these circumstances, the traditional silver pricing mechanism may require fundamental adjustment to reflect the new global physical supply-demand landscape and strategic considerations. The silver market is at a historic turning point. This storm—driven jointly by industrial demand, geopolitics, and financial maneuvering—is rewriting the balance of power between global physical assets and financial derivatives.
[Disclaimer]: The above content reflects analysis of publicly available information, expert insights, and BCC research. It does not constitute investment advice. BCC is not responsible for any losses resulting from reliance on the views expressed herein. Investors should exercise caution.