As the 14th Five-Year Plan enters its concluding phase, China’s offshore wind sector is transitioning from scaled expansion toward a new competitive era defined by quality. Standing at 2026 — the opening year of the 15th Five-Year Plan — the industry is exhibiting three clear characteristics: a push into deeper and more distant offshore waters, an upward march in turbine megawatt capacity, and an accelerating drive toward globalization. Looking back at 2025 and ahead to 2026, how should investors and industry observers read the supply-chain dynamics and shifting competitive landscape?
2025 Market Review: Offshore Wind Becomes the Ballast Stone of the Sector
China’s wind power industry delivered resilient growth in 2025 despite a challenging operating environment. According to the 2025 China Wind Power Hoisting Capacity Statistics Bulletin released by the Wind Energy Professional Committee of the Chinese Renewable Energy Society (CWEA), China added 18,272 newly installed wind turbines over the course of the year, bringing total installed capacity to 130 million kW, or 130 GW — a year-on-year increase of approximately 49.9% and a new historical record.
Offshore wind, constrained by approval timelines and construction cycles, added 5.56 million kW of new capacity in 2025, representing a 4.2% share of the total and a slight year-on-year decline. Within the broader tendering picture, however, offshore wind demonstrated considerably stronger momentum. According to incomplete statistics compiled by Fengmang Energy, offshore wind accounted for 5.58 GW — or 5.94% — of the 94 GW tendered and awarded across 11 turbine manufacturers in the first half of 2025. The segment’s outsized average single-unit capacity of 10,095 kW, well above the 7,068 kW average for onshore turbines, combined with its higher technical thresholds, positions offshore wind as a structural driver of order value and supply-chain innovation across the industry.
2026 Market Outlook: Growth Drivers and Regional Divergence
Entering 2026, offshore wind is expected to enter an installation boom cycle.
Drawing on BCC research insights and prevailing industry consensus, China’s total new energy installed capacity during the 15th Five-Year Plan period is projected to reach 1.5 to 1.6 billion kW, implying annual additions of roughly 300 million kW. Wind power’s share of that total is forecast to rise from the current “30%-plus” range to between 40% and 50% — equivalent to no less than 120 million kW per year. Within that figure, the annual new installation target for offshore wind points to more than 15 GW. Data from the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) corroborates this, indicating that China’s approved offshore wind installation quota has reached 17.4 GW.
Geographically, Guangdong, Fujian, and Zhejiang remain the primary competitive arenas. Guangdong, a designated offshore wind priority province under the 14th Five-Year Plan, is expected to see a concentrated wave of deep-water project deliveries in 2026. In Jiangsu and Shandong, regulatory approval constraints are gradually easing, and the release of previously stalled project backlogs is expected to provide incremental installation support through the year.
A specialist interviewed by BCC identified sea-use rights — particularly those involving military-related considerations — as one of the principal factors behind the 14th Five-Year Plan’s failure to meet its annual average installation target of 10 million kW. These constraints delayed projects across multiple regions: Fujian projects were affected to a degree of approximately 70%, while 60% of project progress in Guangdong and Zhejiang was obstructed, and Jiangsu saw roughly 30% impacted. As these restrictions ease and reserved resources are unlocked and converted into implementable projects, the resulting pipeline release could become one of the most significant near-term growth catalysts for the sector.
Supply-Chain Dynamics: The Push Into Deeper Waters and Core Component Innovation
Beyond 2026, the technology roadmap and the supply side of the industry are both undergoing substantial change.
At the midstream turbine level, China’s offshore wind sector is accelerating its advance from nearshore installations into waters exceeding 60 metres in depth. Floating offshore wind is widely regarded as a defining technology of the 15th Five-Year Plan period. GWEC projects that floating wind will enter an early stage of commercial deployment in 2026, with the pilot successes of Three Gorges’ Yinlinghao and CNOOC’s Haiyou Guanlanhao expected to support the launch of gigawatt-scale floating project tenders during the year.
On the upstream supply side, the large-megawatt trend is reshaping the competitive baseline. The average single-unit capacity of newly added wind turbines in China already surpassed 7 MW in 2025, and the main battlefield for offshore turbines in 2026 is expected to move squarely into the 16 MW to 20 MW range.
Within the gearbox and bearing segment, rising power ratings are driving higher levels of gearbox integration. The localization of wind turbine bearings — which account for more than 30% of gearbox cost — is accelerating notably. Domestically produced high-end precision bearings are expected to displace imports at scale in 2026, contributing meaningfully to a reduction in overall offshore turbine costs.
On pricing, BCC research indicates that wind turbine equipment prices actually rose 5% to 8% in 2025, reaching approximately CNY 1,300 per kW (roughly USD 187.98, or approximately KRW 263,172). As supply-chain innovation and scale effects take hold, per-watt turbine prices are expected to resume a downward trajectory — a development that would extend the economics of grid-parity connection further into deeper offshore zones.
Competitive Landscape: From Domestic Contest to Global Competition
According to CWEA’s 2025 statistics, ten turbine manufacturers recorded newly added installations in China’s wind power market. The top seven each surpassed 10 million kW of newly added capacity. In order of ranking, they were Goldwind (SZ:002202), Yunda (SZ:300772), Mingyang Smart Energy (SH:601615), Envision Energy, Sany Renewables (SH:688349), CRRC (SH:601766), and Dongfang Electric (SH:600875), with a combined market share of 91.8%.
Eight manufacturers recorded offshore wind installations specifically. The headline development was Goldwind’s ascent past Mingyang Smart Energy to become China’s largest offshore wind turbine manufacturer — an industry first. Goldwind added 242 turbines totalling 2.089 million kW, capturing a 37.3% share. Mingyang Smart Energy added 105 turbines for 1.367 million kW and a 24.4% share. Electric Wind Power (SH:688660), Envision Energy, Dongfang Electric, Sany Renewables, Yunda, and CSSC Haizhuang collectively accounted for the remaining 38.3%.
Overseas expansion has emerged as a meaningful new competitive front. China’s wind turbine export volume exceeded 28 million kW in 2025. Looking into 2026, the competitive focus is expected to shift from a straightforward price contest toward the capacity to capture what the industry is calling “the two seas” — the offshore domestic market and international markets simultaneously. Companies with established localized service capabilities in Europe and Southeast Asia are viewed as best positioned to convert that geographic ambition into durable advantage.
At the same time, as the earliest-installed turbines move into their operations and maintenance phase, offshore wind O&M services are emerging as a new revenue growth curve for 2026. Capabilities in smart O&M, drone-based inspection, and related technologies are increasingly cited as differentiating competitive factors in what has otherwise become a heavily commoditized market.
[Disclaimer]: The above content reflects analysis of publicly available information, expert insights, and BCC research. It does not constitute investment advice. BCC is not responsible for any losses resulting from reliance on the views expressed herein. Investors should exercise caution.